Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 18.217123 20.762567 23.511127 26.696563 30.283643 34.194995 38.780021
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 14.308980 17.709142 21.665830 26.598345 32.570235 39.553720 48.326123
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 12.531998 16.343305 20.993206 27.061368 34.747230 44.131813 56.431285
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 11.043644 15.090106 20.238656 27.234800 36.454200 48.144137 64.040554
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 9.755886 13.886706 19.338969 27.012886 37.478051 51.185635 70.424367
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 8.867218 13.097608 18.869281 27.253590 39.043716 54.940304 77.886444
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 8.326719 12.718572 18.892511 28.119989 41.457617 59.911663 87.223440
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 7.528369 11.878937 18.174330 27.844808 42.196708 62.551286 93.402392
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 6.530333 10.641006 16.761620 26.420720 41.131722 62.505981 95.663805
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 6.186786 10.370493 16.757951 27.078865 43.156641 67.012556 104.772648
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 5.891808 10.145526 16.796278 27.785437 45.272831 71.738368 114.428407
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 5.434089 9.613324 16.305044 27.611118 45.988182 74.350911 120.965064
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 4.936701 8.981351 15.619137 27.095099 46.159565 76.181321 126.476166
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 4.589460 8.575662 15.272822 27.107152 47.177071 79.388360 134.333616
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 4.353035 8.340558 15.188896 27.540054 48.893551 83.775773 144.281467
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 4.096267 8.045354 14.976176 27.729429 50.197873 87.540732 153.380925
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 3.797012 7.644727 14.545321 27.499349 50.753291 90.068979 160.516483
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 3.595822 7.410409 14.391948 27.745613 52.140336 94.048071 170.277093
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 3.498899 7.368110 14.583898 28.626145 54.695634 100.141710 183.953993
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 3.254197 7.013467 14.166668 28.346492 55.127647 102.547975 191.290405
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 2.885828 6.377563 13.167670 26.898247 53.314483 100.877573 191.292861
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 2.798813 6.313402 13.270201 27.567558 55.490011 106.451114 204.561574
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 2.721757 6.263437 13.395763 28.286072 57.792153 112.353669 218.688539